model radar / google / gemini-4

Gemini 4

Google · the next Gemini generation

2% by Jul 31 not announced — 3.5 Pro comes first gemma 4 ≠ gemini 4

There is no official Gemini 4 — no announcement, no date, no on-record Google or DeepMind statement. The real next release is Gemini 3.5 Pro, rolling out in a staged preview right now after Pichai’s I/O “next month” promise slipped. The dedicated market prices a summer Gemini 4 at ~2%; analyst guesses cluster at late 2026–early 2027, none confirmed. Don’t confuse it with Gemma 4 — the open-weight line that already shipped in April. The second a gemini-4 id answers on the public API, ArtificialWatch fires.

gemini-4 — release odds live markets

Gemini 4.0 released by Jul 31polymarket 2%

The next Gemini Pro (3.5 GA) by Jul 31 — a separate marketpolymarket 83%

Gemini 4.0 by Jun 30 — resolved NOpolymarket 1%

odds as of Jul 11, 2026 · markets are sentiment, not a promise — the alert only fires on a real API answer

✳ the wire

Leaks & news, newest first.

Jul 8 · report

Gemini 3.5 Pro slips to a staged July rollout — a “ground-up rebuild”

Reports put 3.5 Pro in a whitelist preview around Jul 8–12 with wider access ~Jul 17, citing a full re-architecture, a reported 2M-token context window and a “Deep Think” reasoning layer. The same reports mention a “Gemini 4 Flash” variant in development — anonymous sourcing, no Google confirmation. via TechTimes · BigGo (unconfirmed)

Jun 23 · context

DeepMind departures raise pace questions

Fortune reported notable exits — including John Jumper leaving for Anthropic — prompting doubts about DeepMind’s pace in the model race. Context for why the 3.x line is stretching. via Fortune

May 19 · official

Google I/O ships Gemini 3.5 Flash — and no Gemini 4

The Pichai-led keynote launched Gemini 3.5 Flash in preview and promised 3.5 Pro “next month.” Every “Gemini 4 at I/O” piece beforehand was speculation — the model shown was 3.5. via Fast Company · Google

Apr 2 · the trap

Gemma 4 ships — and it is not Gemini 4

Google’s open-weight Gemma line hit version 4 for reasoning/agentic workloads — routinely mis-cited as “Gemini 4” in search results. Different product line entirely. via Google

✳ from google

The official word.

"With Gemini 3.5 Flash and computer-use agents, AI can now see, reason, and act across desktop and browser environments."

Demis Hassabis, Google I/O · May 19, 2026 — about the 3.5 line. On Gemini 4 specifically, Google has said nothing on the record.

Gemini 3.5 ProThe actual next release — staged preview now, GA pending.

Gemma 4Open-weight line, shipped Apr 2 — not Gemini 4.

Gemini 4This page’s watch — unannounced; ~2% this summer per the dedicated market.

Hear it the second Gemini 4 answers.

We sweep Google’s public API every 60 seconds. The moment a gemini-4 model id returns a real answer, your channels fire — email + Chrome push free, SMS and a phone call on paid tiers. Not the rumor mill: the alert means it’s answering.