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artificialwatch
3 models dropped this week · 51 on the watchlist · live market odds
ARTIFICIALWATCH

Know the minute a new AI model drops.

  • Checkers sweep every provider API every 60 seconds — the moment a new model answers, you know.
  • Email + Chrome push, free. Paid plans add SMS and a phone call.
  • You choose what fires: SOTA only, everything, or hand-picked models — per channel.
  • Paid plans also watch the AI subscriptions you pay for — lineup changes, prices, limits, sunsets.

Free forever: email + Chrome notification. No card. Upgrade only when you want it louder.

On the board. You'll hear the second the next model answers — check your inbox to confirm.
model radar
full watchlist 51 · odds via polymarket · next sweep in 60s
how it works

One sweep every minute. Then everything fires.

No dashboards to babysit. Pick the models, pick the channels, and go back to work — the board does the watching.

A cyan radar sweep scanning a grid of API nodes
01 · watch

Checkers sweep the APIs

Every 60 seconds we poll each provider directly and wait for a genuinely new frontier model to return a real answer — debounced, no false alarms.

One signal fanning out along circuit lines to a phone, laptop and inbox
02 · fire

Every channel you enabled

The moment a launch is confirmed, your channels fire at once — email and Chrome push on the free plan; SMS and a phone call on paid plans.

A glowing scorecard of charts and gauges under a magnifying lens
03 · know

Then the intel rolls in

A scorecard on the new model the day it lands — on The Call, your own saved prompts run against it too. Then we keep watching your subscriptions: the models they offer, their prices, their limits, and what quietly gets retired.

the full watchlist

Everything on the wire.

The radar shows what lands next. This is the whole book — announced, leaked, rumored, or simply inevitable. Every one of them is swept every 60 seconds, and every one fires your alerts the second it answers.

GPT-6OpenAI · 2% this month
rumored
GPT-5.7OpenAI · leaked — August target
rumored
AstraOpenAI · previewed in DC · name not final
radar
o4OpenAI · reasoning track
rumored
ChatGPT-5.6OpenAI · repriced Jul 30 · Luna −80%, Terra −20%
live
Fable 5.1Anthropic · 70% by Sep 30
radar
Fable 6Anthropic · next generation
future
Mythos 5Anthropic · vetted partners only
restricted
Claude Opus 4.9Anthropic · expected
expected
Claude Opus 5Anthropic · dropped Jul 24 · called in 61s
live
Next Claude SonnetAnthropic · market: 92% by Dec 31
watching
Claude Haiku 5Anthropic · market: 76% by Oct 31
watching
Gemini 3.5 ProGoogle · 91% by Aug 31
radar
Gemini 4Google · 2% this month
rumored
Gemma 4Google · open weights expected
expected
Gemini 3.5 FlashGoogle · live in preview since I/O
live
Gemini 3.6 FlashGoogle · dropped Jul 21 · $1.50 / $7.50
live
Gemini 3.5 Flash-LiteGoogle · dropped Jul 21 · $0.30 / $2.50
live
Gemini 3.5 Flash CyberGoogle · pilot only — govs & trusted partners
restricted
Grok 5SpaceXAI · 6T promised — 3 windows missed
future
Grok 2TSpaceXAI · 4.6 ~Aug 7 at 1.5T, then 4.7 at 2.1T
expected
Grok 4.5SpaceXAI · dropped Jul 9 · called at 96%
live
Muse Spark 2Meta · after Spark 1.1’s paid debut
future
Llama 5Meta · open weights expected
expected
Mistral Large 4Mistral · no signal yet
radar
Mistral Medium 4Mistral · mid-size follow-up
expected
DeepSeek V4 ProDeepSeek · Flash official Jul 31 · Pro GA pending
radar
DeepSeek R3DeepSeek · next reasoning line
rumored
Qwen 3.8 MaxAlibaba · dropped Jul 18 · 2.4T preview
live
Qwen 4 (open)Alibaba · open weights for local
expected
GLM-5.3/5.5Zhipu · 5.3 skipped? · August target · open weights
radar
GLM-6Zhipu · expected
expected
Kimi K3Moonshot · dropped Jul 15 · weights live Jul 28
live
Kimi K2.8Moonshot · next agent-swarm rev
rumored
Kimi K3.1Moonshot · researcher-confirmed · August
radar
MiniMax M4MiniMax · expected
radar
MiniMax M3.5MiniMax · M3 follow-up expected
expected
MiniMax-H3MiniMax · video · #1 editing · open weights
live
InklingThinking Machines · open weights · dropped Jul 15
live
Inkling-SmallThinking Machines · dropped Jul 30 · 276B/12B · SWE-bench 80.2%
live
SWE-2Cognition · after SWE-1.7’s frontier-class run
future
Composer 3Cursor · from-scratch run on SpaceX’s Colossus
expected
Nova PremierAmazon · quietly listed in the public catalogs
live
MAI-2Microsoft · in-house frontier
rumored
Phi-5Microsoft · small open models
expected
Nemotron 4NVIDIA · open everything
expected
Ernie 5.5Baidu · expected
expected
Seed 2.5ByteDance · Doubao’s next engine
rumored
Step 3.8 FlashStepFun · next VLM rev
rumored
Step 4StepFun · next flagship
rumored
Hy4Tencent · after Hy3’s Apache drop
future
plans

Start free. Get louder when it matters.

The ladder runs $0 to $34.99. Free watches, Signal texts, The Call rings — the one feature nearly every paying member of our predecessor cited. The Watchtower is the evidence tier: it judges what landed. Founding closed July 2026; founders keep $9 for life. Most people land on The Call: it costs less than one of the AI subscriptions it guards.

Free
Everything we see, you see — about 15 minutes after members. When GPT-6 drops, that gap will feel long.
$0forever
  • Email alert on every launch
  • Chrome desktop notification
  • Dashboard: pick your models — SOTA-only, every lab, or a custom list
  • The radar, the wire, the bench index + a page for every tracked model
  • Live Polymarket odds on every watched launch
  • Arrives in the free batch — about 15 minutes after members' alerts
Watch free

No card. No spam. Free forever. You'll know everything we know — fifteen minutes later.

Signal
The 15-minute delay is gone — your phone buzzes on the same sweep that catches the launch.
$12per month
  • Everything in Free
  • Instant — every channel fires the moment a launch is confirmed, ahead of the free batch
  • SMS the minute a model goes live
  • Per-model text routing — follow the models you care about, mute the rest
  • Quiet hours — overnight texts hold until morning
Get Signal →

Every feature on this card is live today. Cancel anytime. One tier up, your phone doesn't buzz — it rings.

waitlist — opens when the harness ships
The Watchtower
The Call tells you a model landed. The Watchtower tells you whether it's any good at YOUR work — and whether the one you already depend on just got worse.
$34.99per month · charter price, locked for waitlist members
  • Everything in The Call — the ring, the texts, the routing, the quiet hours
  • Is it nerfed? — a fixed battery of verifiable prompts re-run on the models you depend on, so a quiet quality drop shows up as evidence instead of a feeling armed with the tier
  • Prompt packs — your real prompts auto-run on every new model day-0, raw answers in your inbox
  • Subscription watch — models quietly added to, or pulled from, the Gemini app & Anthropic's published model table (more surfaces next)
  • Sunset & deprecation alerts — hear before a model you rely on is retired
  • Price, limit & market-threshold alerts across the providers you pay
  • The weekly intelligence brief — what changed and what to do about it
  • Personal eval harness — your own 5–20 prompts scored on every launch, side by side next
  • Regression history — when your model changed, what you switched to, and whether it held next
  • Head-to-head on demand — your prompt across the current top models, judged and ranked next
Join the Watchtower waitlist →

No card, no charge, no ship date promised — we don't sell it until the harness exists. Waitlist members lock $34.99 when it opens. Everyone already on a paid plan keeps every feature they have today, permanently, whatever happens to this tier.

The Call is the alert you cannot miss; the Watchtower is the verdict on what landed. Every untagged feature above is live today — see the full roadmap → · our public track record →

straight answers

The honest answers.

How fast is "the minute it drops"?

Our checkers sweep provider APIs every 60 seconds, and a detection is confirmed on a second sweep before anything fires. The moment it's confirmed, paid alerts fire instantly: Signal texts you; The Call rings your phone (and texts). Free channels follow in a batch about 15 minutes later.

Which models do you watch?

The radar pins today’s confirmed drops on top and shows what lands next — Fable 5.1, GPT-5.7, Claude Haiku 5, Grok 2T, Mistral Large 4, GLM-6 and MiniMax M4 — and the full watchlist tracks 51, including the restricted Mythos 5, Grok 5, GPT-6, Fable 6, Gemini 4 and more. Click any model for its own page: the leaks, the news, the official word, and the live Polymarket odds on when it drops. Tune alerts to SOTA-only, every major-lab LLM, or specific models, plus extra streams for AI tools, local models, and Chinese models.

What is the subscription watch?

The Call watches the AI subscriptions you already pay for — today that’s the published Claude model lineup and the Gemini app’s model list, plus API prices and limits across providers (ChatGPT’s surface is next). When a model is quietly added — or pulled, the way Fable just was — you hear immediately. The quality tracker covers the sneakier case: same model on the menu, worse answers.

How do you avoid false alarms?

An alert only fires when a model answers a real request over a public API — not a rumor, a leak, or a docs page. A detection is confirmed on a second sweep, then the model has to actually reply to a test prompt before any channel fires.

What's the difference between Signal and The Call?

Signal ($12) kills the delay: instant SMS on the same sweep that catches the launch, routed per model. The Call ($19.99) is the tier whose phone rings — a text gets missed, a call gets answered — plus everything after the launch: your prompts run on every new model day-0, and alerts when your AI subscriptions add or pull models, change prices or limits, or retire a model you rely on. All for less than one of the subscriptions it guards.

What happened to Founding?

Founding closed in July 2026. It was the launch-era tier — $9/mo for the early believers — and everyone who joined keeps that rate for life, grandfathered unconditionally. It closed as a decision, not a sell-out. The ladder today is Free, Signal, and The Call.

Can I cancel anytime?

Yes. Every paid plan is monthly with no lock-in — cancel in one click and keep access through the period you’ve paid for. One caveat worth knowing: The Call’s $19.99 charter rate is locked while you stay subscribed — cancel and the lock is gone; rejoining later means whatever the price is then. (Grandfathered founders: same deal on your $9.)

Do you have a desktop or mobile app?

On the way. The plan: a macOS menubar radar with a full-screen drop banner, then iPhone and Android apps with widgets, then Windows and Linux trays. Email and Chrome push work everywhere today — see the roadmap.

What’s the Watchtower tier?

The tier for people who want their own evidence. The Call tells you a model landed; the Watchtower judges it. It carries the whole intelligence layer — the “is it nerfed?” quality battery on the models you depend on, prompt packs, subscription and sunset watch, price and limit alerts, and the weekly brief — and adds your personal eval harness: 5–20 of your own prompts scored on every launch, with regression history and on-demand head-to-heads. The harness is designed but not built yet, so we don’t sell the tier — no ship date promised; waitlist members lock the $34.99/mo charter price when it opens. Anyone already on a paid plan keeps every feature they have today, permanently.

Are you affiliated with OpenAI, Anthropic, Google…?

No. ArtificialWatch is independent and not affiliated with, endorsed by, or operated by any AI lab. We watch their public APIs and tell you the second something ships.

last call

You won’t be watching when it drops. We will.

Claude Opus 5 dropped Jul 24 — we had it 61 seconds after it first answered. Next on the radar: Fable 5.1 at 70% by Sep 30. Be on the board before it answers.

Email + Chrome push · no card · free forever

On the board. You'll hear the second the next model answers — check your inbox to confirm.