✳ the track record
Every call, timestamped.
This is our accuracy ledger. For every launch the radar verified, you can see what the market was pricing, when our checkers first saw the model in a live catalog, and when it was confirmed. Where we have no timestamp, we say so — nothing on this page is reconstructed after the fact. Market figures appear only where we verified the resolved book ourselves.
Ledger note (Jul 21, 2026): detection timestamps are temporarily offline — the one-shot ledger was reset during a database migration and re-imports from the archive in early August. Live dates and verified market reads below are unaffected.
| Model | The market's final read | First seen | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claude Opus 5 Anthropic | — | 2026-07-24 16:51:33 UTC | 2026-07-24 16:52:34 UTC Detected by the catalog sweep, confirmed on the next sweep 61s later — 95 alerts delivered. |
| Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite Google | — | — | — Verified live 2026-07-21 — $0.30/$2.50 per 1M; high-throughput agentic search + doc processing. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Gemini 3.6 Flash Google | — | — | — Verified live 2026-07-21 — $1.50/$7.50 per 1M, cheaper than 3.5 Flash; 17% fewer output tokens. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Qwen 3.8 Max Alibaba | — | — | — Verified live 2026-07-18 — 2.4T Max-Preview via Qoder; open weights soon; specs self-reported. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Kimi K3 Moonshot | Polymarket resolved YES — the radar carried the book's 98% pre-launch (Jul 15) | — | — Verified live 2026-07-15 — dropped Jul 15 · 2.8T · weights Jul 27. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Inkling Thinking Machines | — | — | — Verified live 2026-07-15 — open weights · 975B MoE · dropped Jul 15. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| ChatGPT-5.6 OpenAI | Polymarket resolved YES — the book had Thursday Jul 9 at 97% | — | — Verified live 2026-07-09 — Sol · Terra · Luna went public Jul 9. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Grok 4.5 xAI | Polymarket resolved YES — the book had Jul 10 at 96% | — | — Verified live 2026-07-09 — public Jul 9. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Muse Spark 1.1 Meta | — | — | — Verified live 2026-07-09 — Meta Model API, Jul 9. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Fable 5 Anthropic | — | — | — Verified live 2026-07-01 — returned Jul 1. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Claude Sonnet 5 Anthropic | — | — | — Verified live 2026-06-30 — shipped Jun 30. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Gemini 3.5 Flash Google | — | — | — Verified live 2026-05-19 — preview since I/O, on OpenRouter. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
How detection works: catalogs are swept every 60 seconds; a sighting must persist across a second sweep AND the model must answer a real test prompt before anything is confirmed. The same discipline applies to this page — if a future call is wrong or late, it stays inthe ledger. Get the alert the second the next one confirms →