✳ the track record
Every call, timestamped.
This is our accuracy ledger. For every launch the radar verified, you can see what the market was pricing, when our checkers first saw the model in a live catalog, and when it was confirmed. Where we have no timestamp, we say so — nothing on this page is reconstructed after the fact. Market figures appear only where we verified the resolved book ourselves.
Ledger note: the one-shot ledger was reset on Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration, so launches confirmed before then show a verified live date and no detection timestamps. Every launch the radar has caught since (Qwen 3.8 Max on Aug 3 onward) carries its own first-seen and confirmed timestamps, logged at the time. We do not reconstruct the missing ones.
| Model | The market's final read | First seen | Confirmed |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mercury 2.5 Inception | — | 2026-09-09 06:41:45 UTC | 2026-09-09 08:17:57 UTC Detected by the catalog sweep, confirmed on the next sweep 5772s later — 14 alerts delivered. |
| Nex-N2.5 NEX AGI | — | — | — Verified live 2026-09-08 — agentic family (mini · Pro · Max) · our sweep read the Pro and mini ids at 262k ctx on a free tier, so the standing paid rate is unknown and stays unquoted. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| GPT-Image-2.5 OpenAI | — | — | — Verified live 2026-09-08 — image · Flare and Sunburst, the two API tiers of ChatGPT Images 2.5 · both listed at $5/$30 per 1M on the catalog we read. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| GPT-6 Astra OpenAI | — | 2026-09-04 19:10:48 UTC | 2026-09-04 19:11:57 UTC Detected by the catalog sweep, confirmed on the next sweep 69s later — 110 alerts delivered. |
| K2 Horizon IFM | — | — | — Verified live 2026-09-03 — fully open fleet (weights, code and training data) at 375B-A23B · 36B-A4B · 32B · 7B · 3.7B · 0.9B; the launch date is from IFM's own Sep 3 announcement, not our own reading · our sweep read the 7B at $0.05/$0.20 per 1M served at 131k ctx, against a 524k native window IFM claims. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Muse Spark 1.3 Meta | — | 2026-09-02 16:49:44 UTC | 2026-09-02 16:50:45 UTC Detected by the catalog sweep, confirmed on the next sweep 61s later — 14 alerts delivered. |
| Gemini 3.8 Flash Google | — | — | — Verified live 2026-09-02 — GA Sep 2 · $0.75/$3.75 per 1M introductory through Dec 31, identical to 3.7 · 1M in / 64K out · 'our most intelligent Flash model' · 20 days after 3.7. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Fable 5.1 Anthropic | — | 2026-09-01 17:52:22 UTC | 2026-09-01 17:53:22 UTC Detected by the catalog sweep, confirmed on the next sweep 60s later — 110 alerts delivered. |
| Mythos 5.1 Anthropic | — | — | — Verified live 2026-09-01 — live - shipped with Fable 5.1 · advanced biology capabilities; Anthropic says scientist enrollment opens soon. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Hy4 Tencent | — | — | — Verified live 2026-08-28 — live in preview — 770B total / 49B active MoE · Apache 2.0 open weights · $0.83/$2.50 per 1M · 1M ctx · the GA flagship is still ahead. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Gemini 3.5 Transcribe Google | — | — | — Verified live 2026-08-26 — $2/$12 per 1M · speech-to-text, 85+ languages · a streaming `-live` id is listed alongside it. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Qwen 3.8 Flash Alibaba | — | — | — Verified live 2026-08-26 — live - $0.15/$0.47 per 1M · 1M ctx · multimodal · HF ships it as Qwen3.8-Flash-Next. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| GLM-5.3 Flash Zhipu AI | — | — | — Verified live 2026-08-26 — live - $0.075/$0.25 per 1M · 1.31M ctx · open weights on HF Aug 25. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Granite 4.2 IBM | — | — | — Verified live 2026-08-25 — Apache 2.0 open weights, 3B/8B/30B · switchable reasoning · 8B listed at $0.10/$0.15 per 1M, 131k ctx. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Wan 3.0 Alibaba | — | — | — Verified live 2026-08-24 — video · 30-second single-pass clips from text, image, audio, video or documents · hosted on Alibaba Cloud. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Ornith 1.5 DeepReinforce | — | — | — Verified live 2026-08-19 — 397B / 35B MoE + 9B dense · MIT · open weights on Hugging Face. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| GLM-5.3 Zhipu AI | — | — | — Verified live 2026-08-14 — live - same 743B base as 5.2, every gain from post-training · tops CyberGym · own weights were promised ~2 weeks post-launch and that window closed Aug 28 unconfirmed. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Gemini 3.7 Flash Google | — | — | — Verified live 2026-08-13 — $0.75/$3.75 per 1M introductory through end of 2026 (half 3.6 Flash). Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Grok 2T xAI | — | 2026-08-12 15:54:25 UTC | 2026-08-12 15:55:28 UTC Detected by the catalog sweep under the "Grok 2T" hunt, which has since been re-pointed at Grok 4.7. The model it caught is listed under its own row. |
| Grok 4.6 xAI | — | — | — Verified live 2026-08-12 — Aug 12 at $2/$6 per 1M, unchanged from Grok 4.5. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Muse Glimmer 30B Meta | — | — | — Verified live 2026-08-09 — $0.35/$1.50 per 1M · the small Muse. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Muse Spark 1.2 Meta | — | — | — Verified live 2026-08-05 — powers Muse Code · co-trained with the agent · $1.25/$4.25 per 1M. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Muse Code Meta | — | — | — Verified live 2026-08-05 — live (beta) — Meta's first terminal coding agent, via Meta Model API. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Qwen 3.8 Max Alibaba | — | 2026-08-03 03:52:14 UTC | 2026-08-03 03:53:14 UTC Detected by the catalog sweep, confirmed on the next sweep 61s later — 103 alerts delivered. |
| Inkling-Small Thinking Machines | — | — | — Verified live 2026-07-30 — 276B total / 12B active · SWE-bench Verified 80.2% · 512K ctx · open weights. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| MiniMax-H3 MiniMax | — | — | — Verified live 2026-07-30 — video · #1 video editing, #2 text-to-video · open weights · API price TBA. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Grok Voice Think Fast 2.0 xAI | — | — | — Verified live 2026-07-29 — speech-to-speech · 82.9% on the Artificial Analysis index, up from 75.7% · grok-voice-latest repoints to it Aug 5. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Claude Opus 5 Anthropic | — | 2026-07-24 16:51:33 UTC | 2026-07-24 16:52:34 UTC Detected by the catalog sweep, confirmed on the next sweep 61s later — 95 alerts delivered. |
| FLUX 3 Black Forest Labs | — | — | — Verified live 2026-07-23 — Video went GA Aug 4 via BFL API · 20s at 1080p, native audio, lip-sync in 14+ languages · Dev open weights still unreleased. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Ling 3.0 Flash Ant Group | — | — | — Verified live 2026-07-23 — 124B MoE · 262k ctx · free on the router through Aug 3, then priced. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Gemini 3.5 Flash-Lite Google | — | — | — Verified live 2026-07-21 — $0.30/$2.50 per 1M; high-throughput agentic search + doc processing. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Gemini 3.6 Flash Google | — | — | — Verified live 2026-07-21 — $1.50/$7.50 per 1M, cheaper than 3.5 Flash; 17% fewer output tokens. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Kimi K3 Moonshot | Polymarket resolved YES — the radar carried the book's 98% pre-launch (Jul 15) | — | — Verified live 2026-07-15 — dropped Jul 15 · 2.8T · open weights landed Jul 28 (1.56 TB, MXFP4). Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Inkling Thinking Machines | — | — | — Verified live 2026-07-15 — open weights · 975B MoE · dropped Jul 15. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| ChatGPT-5.6 OpenAI | Polymarket resolved YES — the book had Thursday Jul 9 at 97% | — | — Verified live 2026-07-09 — Sol · Terra · Luna since Jul 9 · repriced Jul 30: Luna −80%, Terra −20%. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Grok 4.5 xAI | Polymarket resolved YES — the book had Jul 10 at 96% | — | — Verified live 2026-07-09 — public Jul 9. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Muse Spark 1.1 Meta | — | — | — Verified live 2026-07-09 — Meta Model API, Jul 9. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Muse Image Meta | — | — | — Verified live 2026-07-07 — Meta Superintelligence Labs' first image model, shipped Jul 7; listed on the API catalogs Aug 26. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Fable 5 Anthropic | — | — | — Verified live 2026-07-01 — returned Jul 1. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Claude Sonnet 5 Anthropic | — | — | — Verified live 2026-06-30 — shipped Jun 30. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| GLM-5.2 Zhipu AI | — | — | — Verified live 2026-06-16 — $0.40/$2.52 per 1M · no longer the current shipped GLM: 5.3 landed Aug 14 and 5.3 Flash Aug 26. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Mythos 5 Anthropic | — | — | — Verified live 2026-06-09 — shipped Jun 9 with Fable 5, export-controlled Jun 12, controls withdrawn Jun 30; on Azure at $10/$50, not on Bedrock. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| MiniMax M3 MiniMax | — | — | — Verified live 2026-05-31 — $0.30/$1.20 per 1M. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Claude Opus 4.8 Anthropic | — | — | — Verified live 2026-05-27 — live. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Gemini 3.5 Flash Google | — | — | — Verified live 2026-05-19 — preview since I/O, on OpenRouter. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Ring 2.6 Ant Group | — | — | — Verified live 2026-05-08 — 1T reasoning line, $0.07/$0.63 per 1M. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| GPT-5.5 OpenAI | — | — | — Verified live 2026-04-24 — live. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| DeepSeek V4 DeepSeek | — | — | — Verified live 2026-04-24 — live · open weights · retiring into V4.1 Flash — per DeepSeek's own changelog rather than our own reading, deepseek-v4-flash already routes to V4.1 Flash and deepseek-v4-pro follows at 04:00 UTC Sep 14 · our sweep read the bare deepseek-flash alias on Sep 10 at $0.15/$0.60 per 1M, 1M ctx. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Gemma 4 Google | — | — | — Verified live 2026-04-02 — shipped Apr 2 as gemma-4-31b-it / gemma-4-26b-a4b-it; open weights. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Grok 4.20 xAI | — | — | — Verified live 2026-03-10 — live since March — multi-agent, reasoning and non-reasoning SKUs; 4.20-beta variants are still under test on the arena board. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
| Mercury 2 Inception | — | — | — Verified live 2026-02-24 — diffusion LLM · listed in the catalogs we sweep; launch date is from Inception's own Feb 24 announcement, not our own reading. Detection timestamps for this launch are offline: the one-shot ledger was reset Jul 21, 2026 during a store migration and re-imports from the archived database in early August. Until then this row shows only the verified live date — we don't reconstruct timestamps. |
How detection works: catalogs are swept every 60 seconds; a sighting must persist across a second sweep AND the model must answer a real test prompt before anything is confirmed. The same discipline applies to this page — if a future call is wrong or late, it stays inthe ledger. Get the alert the second the next one confirms →