AI model odds, live
Get the launch alert, free →who holds #1
arena.ai text arena · overall · style control off- END SEP$4.1M traded · rules ↗99%+Anthropic
- END OCT$418k traded · rules ↗88%Anthropic
- END NOV$14k traded · rules ↗85%Anthropic
- END 2026$1.4M traded · rules ↗75%Anthropic
Each market pays the company whose model ranks first on that leaderboard at noon ET on its date. See the board it settles on ↗ Our own reading of every leaderboard is on the bench index.
when it ships
price by deadline · bright: soonest date the market favours · hatched: under $2k traded64% by Sep 28
- 1%Sep 27
- 64%Sep 28
- 66%Sep 29
- 89%Sep 30
- 98%Oct 15
- 99%Oct 31
93% by Oct 31
- 7%Sep 30
- 78%Oct 16
- 93%Oct 31
92% by Oct 31
- 89%Oct 15
- 92%Oct 31
- 95%Dec 31
82% by Oct 31
- 5%Sep 30
- 49%Oct 15
- 82%Oct 31
79% by Oct 31
- 3%Sep 30
- 79%Oct 31
- 95%Nov 30
68% by Oct 31
- 27%Sep 30
- 40%Oct 15
- 68%Oct 31
- 92%Nov 30
64% by Oct 31
- 64%Oct 31
- 93%Dec 31
54% by Oct 31
- 29%Oct 9
- 47%Oct 16
- 47%Oct 23
- 54%Oct 31
- 96%Dec 31
93% by Nov 30
- 21%Sep 30
- 42%Oct 31
- 93%Nov 30
95% by Dec 31
- 69%Oct 31
- 95%Dec 31
89% by Dec 31
- 61%Nov 30
- 89%Dec 31
88% by Nov 30
- 45%Oct 31
- 88%Nov 30
44% by Dec 31
- 2%Oct 31
- 11%Nov 30
- 44%Dec 31
35% by Oct 31
- 51%Sep 30
- 35%Oct 31
25% by Nov 30
- 10%Oct 31
- 25%Nov 30
21% by Oct 31
- 2%Sep 30
- 21%Oct 31
- 34%Nov 30
3% by Sep 30
- 3%Sep 30
- 20%Oct 31
- 30%Nov 30
2% by Oct 31
- 2%Oct 31
- 8%Dec 31
- 20%Mar 31
Next model by lab: Claude · OpenAI · Gemini · Grok · DeepSeek · Qwen · or every release.
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