Which company has the best AI model, according to Polymarket?

On Polymarket's "Which company has the best AI model end of November" market, Google is at 79%, then Anthropic at 21%. These are live market prices, not a benchmark result.

What does the best-AI-model market settle on?

The company whose model ranks first on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) leaderboard, as named in the market's own rules (https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control), at the market's check time.

Which AI model releases have prediction markets?

ArtificialWatch tracks 11 open Polymarket release markets, including GPT Astra 6.1 or later (92% by Nov 30), Next Grok (4.8 or later) (61% by Nov 30), Next Qwen Flash (3.9 or later) (97% by Dec 31), Next Claude Opus (5.6+ / 6) (91% by Dec 31).

AI model odds, live

last trade · read 02:11 UTC · $5.7M on who holds #1 · 11 release markets · what traders pay, not our forecast

Prices from Polymarket (and Kalshi where noted), shown as crowd sentiment. Not financial advice. We are not affiliated with, and earn nothing from, either market.

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who holds #1

arena.ai text arena · overall · style control off

END NOV$1.4M traded · rules ↗
79%Google
Anthropic 21%
END 2026$4.3M traded · rules ↗
70%Google
Anthropic 24%OpenAI 3%

Each market pays the company whose model ranks first on that leaderboard at noon ET on its date. See the board it settles on ↗ Our own reading of every leaderboard is on the bench index.

when it ships

price by deadline · bright: soonest date the market favours · hatched: under $2k traded

GPT Astra 6.1 or laterOpenAI
92% by Nov 30
1. 21%Nov 12
2. 20%Nov 13
3. 22%Nov 15
4. 92%Nov 30
5. 97%Dec 15
6. 97%Dec 31
polymarket ↗
Next Grok (4.8 or later)xAI
61% by Nov 30
1. 52%Nov 23
2. 61%Nov 30
3. 73%Dec 7
polymarket ↗
Next Qwen Flash (3.9 or later)Alibaba
97% by Dec 31
1. 97%Dec 31
polymarket ↗
Next Claude Opus (5.6+ / 6)Anthropic
91% by Dec 31
1. 44%Nov 30
2. 91%Dec 31
polymarket ↗
Next Muse Spark (1.4 or later)Meta
52% by Dec 31
1. 31%Nov 30
2. 52%Dec 31
polymarket ↗
Next GLM (5.4 or later)Zhipu AI
97% by Dec 31
1. 56%Nov 30
2. 97%Dec 31
polymarket ↗
Next Gemini Flash (3.9 or later)Google
33% by Nov 30
1. 33%Nov 30
2. 34%Dec 31
polymarket ↗
Next Gemini Flash-Lite (3.6 or later)Google
25% by Nov 30
1. 10%Nov 15
2. 25%Nov 30
polymarket ↗
Kimi K4Moonshot
12% by Dec 31
1. 12%Dec 31
2. 13%Mar 31
polymarket ↗
Next DeepSeek ProDeepSeek
8% by Nov 30
1. 8%Nov 30
2. 15%Dec 31
polymarket ↗
Grok 5xAI
7% by Dec 31
1. 3%Nov 30
2. 57%Mar 31
3. 7%Dec 31
polymarket ↗

Next model by lab: Claude · OpenAI · Gemini · Grok · DeepSeek · Qwen · or every release.

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