Grok 5
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Not out yet. xAI hasn't released Grok 5. Grok 5 is xAI’s intended frontier leap — Musk’s on-record numbers: 6 trillion parameters, natively multimodal including real-time video, and “roughly a 10% chance” of human-level intelligence. It has now missed three announced windows (end-2025, Q1, Q2) while the 4.x line keeps shipping — Grok 4.5 went public Jul 9, 4.6 on Aug 12, 4.7 on Sep 21 — and Musk now puts 4.8 and 4.9 ahead of it. The market that replaced them has gone the same way so far: its Aug 15 and Aug 31 buckets both resolved NO, and the bet now sits on later dates. No fresh official date exists. The second Grok 5 answers on the public API, ArtificialWatch fires.
Leaks & news, newest first.
Grok 4.7 goes public — the third 4.x release since July
SpaceXAI released Grok 4.7, priced from $2 in / $6 out per million tokens, unchanged from 4.6 (Aug 12). The 4.x line has now shipped three times since Jul 9; Grok 5 still has no date. via SpaceXAI
Musk lays out the queue: 4.8 and 4.9 come before Grok 5
In posts on X, Musk said Grok 4.8 is “a 2.5T model trained with our new C++ software stack” that would finish training that week and start RL, and called Grok 4.9 “probably Astra/Fable class.” Asked how close 4.8 would get to AGI, he replied: “That will be Grok 5.” He gave no date or benchmark for Grok 5. via Musk on X · TeslaNorth
Polymarket opens a fresh Grok 5 market — after the old one said no, three times
A new “Grok 5 released by…?” market opened, pricing 78% by Dec 31. Its predecessor resolved NO on all three dates it offered (Dec 31 ’25, Mar 31 ’26, Jun 30 ’26) — the cleanest record of the slippage there is. Early liquidity is thin; treat the new numbers gently. via Polymarket
Grok 4.5 goes public — the 4.x line keeps shipping while 5 slips
xAI shipped Grok 4.5 — “Opus-class,” agent-focused, built on the ~1.5T V9 foundation. The pattern: incremental 4.x releases land on the cadence xAI can hit, while the 6T flagship stays “next.” via xAI · TechCrunch · Axios
The Q2 window closes — Polymarket resolves “by Jun 30” NO
Grok 5’s third public window passed with the market’s last trade at ~0.2% Yes. The unofficial talk is now Q3/late-2026 — analyst aggregation, not an xAI commitment. via Polymarket
The anchor statement: 6T params, real-time video, Q1 2026
At the Baron Investment Conference Musk put numbers on Grok 5: 6 trillion parameters, inherently multimodal including real-time video, a ~10% chance of human-level intelligence — and a Q1 2026 launch, since missed. Training runs on Colossus 2, the 1 GW Memphis supercluster. via Benzinga · Webull · xAI
The official word.
"…roughly a 10% chance it could reach human-level intelligence."
Elon Musk, on Grok 5 · Baron Investment Conference · Nov 17, 2025 — a self-assessment with no benchmark attached; no official release date exists as of Sep 25, 2026.
Until Grok 5 ships: Grok 4.7.
Which model is current until Grok 5 ships?
The current model in this line is Grok 4.7 from xAI, live since September 21, 2026.
$2 / $6 per 1M tokens on xAI's API.
Hear it the second Grok 5 answers.
We sweep the public catalogs (OpenRouter, models.dev) every 60 seconds. The moment Grok 5 returns a real answer, a text or a phone call fires on paid tiers; free email + Chrome push follow about 15 minutes later. Promised dates have slipped three times; the alert only means one thing — it’s answering.
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