Grok 5
Grok 5 is xAI’s intended frontier leap — Musk’s on-record numbers: 6 trillion parameters, natively multimodal including real-time video, and “roughly a 10% chance” of human-level intelligence. It has now missed three announced windows (end-2025, Q1, Q2) while the 4.x line ships on time — Grok 4.5 went public Jul 9, 4.6 on Aug 12. The market that replaced them has since gone the same way: its Aug 15 and Aug 31 buckets both resolved NO, and the Polymarket event has closed. No fresh official date exists, and we show no number here rather than a frozen one. The second Grok 5 answers on the public API, ArtificialWatch fires.
Leaks & news, newest first.
Polymarket opens a fresh Grok 5 market — after the old one said no, three times
A new “Grok 5 released by…?” market opened, pricing 78% by Dec 31. Its predecessor resolved NO on all three dates it offered (Dec 31 ’25, Mar 31 ’26, Jun 30 ’26) — the cleanest record of the slippage there is. Early liquidity is thin; treat the new numbers gently. via Polymarket
Grok 4.5 goes public — the 4.x line keeps shipping while 5 slips
xAI shipped Grok 4.5 — “Opus-class,” agent-focused, built on the ~1.5T V9 foundation. The pattern: incremental 4.x releases land on the cadence xAI can hit, while the 6T flagship stays “next.” via xAI · TechCrunch · Axios
The Q2 window closes — Polymarket resolves “by Jun 30” NO
Grok 5’s third public window passed with the market’s last trade at ~0.2% Yes. The unofficial talk is now Q3/late-2026 — analyst aggregation, not an xAI commitment. via Polymarket
The anchor statement: 6T params, real-time video, Q1 2026
At the Baron Investment Conference Musk put numbers on Grok 5: 6 trillion parameters, inherently multimodal including real-time video, a ~10% chance of human-level intelligence — and a Q1 2026 launch, since missed. Training runs on Colossus 2, the 1 GW Memphis supercluster. via Benzinga · Webull · xAI
The official word.
"…roughly a 10% chance it could reach human-level intelligence."
Elon Musk, on Grok 5 · Baron Investment Conference · Nov 17, 2025 — a self-assessment with no benchmark attached; no official release date exists as of Jul 11, 2026.
Hear it the second Grok 5 answers.
We sweep the public catalogs (OpenRouter, models.dev) every 60 seconds. The moment Grok 5 returns a real answer, your channels fire — email + Chrome push free, SMS and a phone call on paid tiers. Promised dates have slipped three times; the alert only means one thing — it’s answering.