✳ the wire · intel
Opus 5 misses Thursday — the market collapsed from ~80% to 6% for today in hours
The Polymarket book on "Next Claude Opus released by...?" (event 656719) repriced violently through the morning: the July 23 bucket fell from roughly 80% to 6%, the fastest move on this market since it opened.
What didn't move as hard is the week: July 24 still trades at 41%, July 29 at 73%, and July 31 holds 82%. Read together, traders are saying "days, not weeks" — the Thursday leak was wrong about the day, not obviously about the launch window.
Every wire item is source-verified before it posts and graded: confirmed · strong · reported · rumor. Subscribers see the primary source on each one, the reasoning behind its grade, and the full analysis — plus the launch alerts themselves, which fire the minute a model answers rather than whenever the feed catches up.
