Gemini 3.5 Pro's seventh leaked date, against six prediction markets that already settled NO

This morning one account said Gemini 3.5 Pro was dropping today. Eleven hours later another said it had been delayed again by deployment issues, with next week now likely. Both accounts have been right before. Neither is checkable — so here is what is.

It has not shipped. We read the catalogs directly at 22:30 UTC: 400 ids on OpenRouter, 6,549 across models.dev. There are 39 gemini-3.5 entries between them and every single one is Flash, Flash-Lite, or a live-translation preview. No Pro tier anywhere, on any reseller.

The money has a longer memory than the timeline does. Kalshi lists a contract series on exactly this question, and its settled history is a public record of the wait: windows closing before June 30, July 3, July 10, July 17, July 24 and July 31 have all now finalised NO. Six deadlines, six settlements, real money on each. Four windows remain open — before August 7, August 16, August 21 and August 31. Benzinga, which has a data agreement with Kalshi, reports over $320,000 on the series and prices of 46% for a release before August 16, 63% before August 21 and 76% before August 31. We verified the contracts and their six NO settlements against Kalshi's own API; the prices and volume are Benzinga's reading, because that endpoint does not serve quotes to an unauthenticated reader.

Read those numbers next to today's two leaks. A market that has watched this model miss six windows is only giving it 46% odds of arriving in the next ten days. "Dropping today" was a 0% claim by the time it was posted, and "delayed to next week" is roughly where the money already was.

There is one calendared fact worth more than either leak. Google's Made by Google event is on August 12 in New York for the Pixel 11 line. That is a date Google has committed to publicly, it sits inside the 63%-before-August-21 window, and shipping a flagship model alongside flagship hardware is the most ordinary thing a company can do. Nobody has to leak an event that is already on the calendar.

Two details from this morning's thread deserve care, because together they undercut each other. The claim was that 3.5 Pro is already reachable through Antigravity, Google's agentic IDE, labelled as Gemini 3.1 Pro. We cannot verify what a specific IDE serves behind a label, and we are not calling it false. But four hours later the same account posted a "Gemini 3.5 Pro First Output" — a generated 3D scene — as evidence of the model's quality. If the first claim is true, that output came from a surface labelled 3.1 Pro, and it tells you nothing about 3.5 Pro. If the first claim is false, the output tells you nothing either. A demo cannot be evidence about a model whose identity the demo's own author says is mislabelled.

The reason we care about labels more than most: this exact confusion is a bug we shipped. Our Gemini 3.5 Pro alert used to match any 3.5 id that was not on a hand-written list of siblings — Flash, Flash-Lite, Cyber, nano, thinking. Google is currently listing gemini-3.5-live-translate-preview, a translation model, which was not on that list. It only failed to fire because our staging logic treats "preview" as a variant — and dropping "-preview" is precisely how Google promotes a model to GA. The day that translation model went generally available, we would have announced the month's most anticipated launch off it.

Fixed today, and fixed the right way round: the pattern now requires the Pro tier explicitly instead of excluding a list of siblings that can only ever be incomplete. The audit gained the question that would have caught it — for every armed alert, if a preview id shed its suffix tomorrow, would anything fire? One hit across 6,549 ids, and it was this one.

Running tally, for whenever it does land: seven leaked dates now (June, July 17, July 24, an August 12–14 window, "tomorrow" as of Wednesday, "today" as of this morning, "next week" as of tonight), six settled markets, one Bloomberg report of a months-long delay over coding performance, and one confirmed event on August 12. Google has said only that the model is in partner testing and will be broadly available when ready.

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UPDATE (2026-08-07, 09:15 UTC). The first of the four open windows has closed. Kalshi's "before Aug 7" contract stopped trading at 03:59 UTC and is awaiting settlement; we are not calling the result before the exchange does, but we re-read both catalogs this morning and Gemini 3.5 Pro is still in neither — 400 ids on OpenRouter, 6,183 on models.dev, no Pro tier on any reseller. Neither tracked account has posted since last night, so there is no eighth date yet. Three windows remain open: Aug 16, Aug 21 and Aug 31. Made by Google is still five days out.

UPDATE (2026-08-13). Made by Google happened on Aug 12 and Gemini 3.5 Pro was not part of it — the Pixel 11 line was. We re-read both catalogs today: still no Pro tier across 411 OpenRouter ids and 6,297 on models.dev. The "before Aug 7" contract closed with the model absent; three windows remain, the nearest closing Aug 16. What Google did ship the next day was Gemini 3.7 Flash, a model nobody had leaked at all.